Note to self: the two factors I am most likely to forget when analyzing an issue are as follows:
1. Opportunity cost
2. Statistical sampling bias
Both are obvious when studying topics with which I am familiar. As soon as I leave my research comfort zone (i.e. economics and sociology) however, I am likely to miss these. Nevertheless they are quite present, if not always of central importance.
Otherwise intelligent people (e.g. me) can produce rather poor analysis when discussing topics they have not specifically been trained to approach scientifically. It is not about lack of relevant knowledge (though this can affect the quality of argument as well), it is about mindset.
The "surge's" success has always been based on two changes on the ground. The first has been the placation of the Sunni militias in the north with weapons, money and promises of support. By buying off our enemies and convincing them to battle Al Qaeda instead, we bought further time for political reconciliation. I am not sure that arming militias whose leaders are willing to switch sides for the right price is a wise long-term strategy but it certainly has reduced violence somewhat in the meantime. The second and probably more important change has been the cease fire declared by Al Sadr, the "firebrand" cleric who is behind the most dangerous and violent Shia militia. Again, his willingness to halt his militia's paramilitary operations has led to increased stability and further time to enact desperately needed legislation (which, by the way, has still not occured). In the last few days this cease-fire has essentially shattered as the result of a government led assault on Basra, a stronghold of Sadr's movement. This strike, which apparently was launched without prior American information, was meant to swiftly reclaim the city and solidify the political power of Prime Minister Maliki. With causalities in the hundreds over the last three or four days and no demonstrable progress in reclaiming territory, has instead returned Iraq, at least temporarily, to its pre-surge state of smoldering chaos. The cease-fire may survive the current battle though this appears less likely as the operation continues; militias have already begun to re-seize Baghdad neighborhoods and set up heavily armed road blocks. Regardless, the whole incident demonstrates just how tenuous the surge-enabled relative peace is/was. Without political progress it is only a matter of time before Iraq returns to the chaos of civil war, before the Sunni militias, newly armed, rethink their truce with American forces, before the Shia militias grow tired of Al Maliki and decide to re-exert control of the streets. Let's hope the government has not already squandered all the breathing room our military could afford them.
Never underestimate the Clinton machine.....she'll play up her ability to win big states and "purple" battleground states and force Obama to join her in the gutter, which will only disillusion his acolytes. She can't possibly win the nomination via regular delegates but as a result of her tenacity Obama can't either. It is going to come down to back room deals with super delegates. I wonder which candidate has the scummy connections and years of corrupt experience necessary to succeed on that battleground.....
We should probably prepare for a possible McCain presidency as a result.
Yes, I take bitter satisfaction in watching naive idealism fail. Movements scare me....fainting/crying supporters and sermons and chanting scare me. Can't trust Obama to "heal the tear in our nation's soul"....nothing is that pure, nothing is that easy. Time for people to wake up to the grim realities around us. One man, even in the unlikely event that he is all his followers claim he is, cannot fix what ails us (though he can apparently easily manipulate people into thinking he can). That's too easy...something much bigger needs to happen. Obama as a candidate is fine...Obama as messiah is not.
Everything I've discovered during the course of my research today has been discouraging. I had forgotten or been unaware of several important factors that complicate the "story" I have been constructing. This is a good reminder that social phenomena are rarely simple; multiple causation abounds. Further it proves once again how difficult and long the road to a dissertation is. I am near the very beginning of the process and will face many more days like this, and far worse. In other words, I'll need to wake up tomorrow reinvigorated and undeterred by this little bump. Easier said than done but imperative if I plan to make it out of here while I still have hair on my head.
Sorry I haven't updated much recently; I've actually been rather busy working a part-time job. The most recent fellowship check for my summer position as a research assistant arrived on August 22nd. The next fellowship check for my fall teaching assistantship won't arrive until October 7th. When I was living on campus this hiatus did not pose much of a problem; Stanford was both the source and destination for most of my pay and the financial services office didn't seem to mind waiting six weeks to move virtual dollars from column to column in its accounting tables.Now that I live off campus however, capital liquidity has taken on new importance. My landlord certainly expects regular payments. I've thus taken a position in the sociology department office doing odd jobs at 15$/hour. The pay is not bad considering the difficulty level of the tasks and I've labored in far worse conditions over the years but still I find the whole experience annoying; it is cutting into my research time.
(Self-awareness disclaimer: I know full well how lucky I am to have this job and to have year round financial stability, guaranteed medical coverage, etc. I don't mean to winge too much. I'm just an academic who is more comfortable earning money teaching and conducting research than throwing out garbage, and filling out electronics disposal spreadsheets. This is why I entered graduate school after all!)
Speaking of research, I've set June 2008 as a target date to defend my dissertation prospectus (proposal for you non-wonks). If I manage this, and that is a big if, it will put me on track to graduate this program in five years or less. For some students in our department, the third year is spent adrift in a sea of possibilities. They don't achieve focus until the midpoint or even end of their 4th year. I think I have a chance to avoid this fate because of my previous time (served) in the economics department; I've had a lot more time to think about issues that interest me. Also, I have finished with my classes already and that frees up valuable hours.
As for the research in question, I already know that I want to focus on phenomena arising in credit markets for the poor (i.e. payday lenders, pawn shops, etc). I am working on tying this to research on the "ethnic economy" and on the "moral economy," both of which I've mentioned and discussed in previous posts. I don't yet have data or a collection of coherent hypotheses but I do have direction and a good idea where I need to search for relevant data. That, obviously, is a start.
As my (currently inchoate) ideas evolve into a full-fledged dissertation project I'll post more on this. I'd also like to return to my previous habit of posting the occasional screed or eschatological warning. For now though, a sojourn in the land of Nod; there is a mountain of menial matters to attend to in the office tomorrow morning.
Here is some theme music to work by:
What television show stands the test of time?
I Love Lucy. I've seen most every episode and they still make me laugh!
Just a few pictures. We went on a trip to Wyoming not long ago. It was a rough trip, but the views made it worthwhile. The girls are growing so fast! It has been a great summer, but I am looking forward to autumn. Halloween... here we come :)
I keep memorizing and forgetting this line by Darwin: "What a book a devil's chaplain might write on the clumsy, wasteful, blundering, low, and horribly cruel work of nature!"
"Existentialism is nothing less than an attempt to draw all the consequences of a coherent atheistic position. It isn't trying to plunge man into despair at all. But if one calls every attitude of unbelief despair, like the Christians, then the word is not being used in its original sense. Existentialism isn't so atheistic that it wears itself out showing that God doesn't exist. Rather, it declares that even if God did exist, that would change nothing. There you've got our point of view. Not that we believe that God exists, but we think that the problem of His existence is not the issue. In this sense, existentialism is optimistic, a doctrine of action, and it is plain dishonesty for Christians to make no distinction between their own despair and ours and then to call us despairing."
